Real estate statistics are notoriously hard to come by in Montana. This is a non-disclosure state, meaning individual sale prices are not public. And few (if any) newspapers regularly publish Real Estate stats. So for local statistics, you have to find what you can on the web.

Here are some snippets from around the state (note that I am providing links for the sources, but they may go out of date).



Here are the Missoula stats from May 2008. Note that the median price (a trailing indicator) is down slightly, while sales are down a whopping 31% year over year. This means that there is more pain to come.

Here in Billings, sales are beginning to drop off. Closed sales are off slightly, and pending sales are off big. Source: Big Sky Business Journal Hot Sheet, June 16 2008

Bozeman is one of the most overheated major markets in Montana. Prices there are way out of line with the low incomes, and the entire town's industry lately seems to be based on real estate. And now they're feeling the first effects of the downturn: Prices down 10% in 6 months. Source.

This from Helena. Days on Market are shooting up to near 5 months, and prices are down 5%. Source.

Finally, here's a stunner from the Bitterroot Valley. Sorry for the size, but I wanted to show all the stats and statements to you. All the red underlines are my notes.



Did you catch that? Inventory is 886 and there were 15 sales in one month. The Bitterroot Valley (south of Missoula, including the town of Hamilton) has a 5 year supply of houses! Typically a healthy market has a month or two of supply, but the Bitterroot has 59 months worth. Prices have not come down much yet, but with supply and demand like that, they will soon. Unbelievably, this real estate broker reassures buyers that "It's a GREAT time to buy!"

Let's reframe this in terms of the current high gas prices. Suppose there are 886 people in your town attempting to sell their pickup trucks. Last month, only 15 people in town bought trucks. Would you think it was a good time to buy? Would you pay near full price for one, knowing the supply and demand balance? Would you imagine that truck prices would rise or fall in the near future?