2008 video, finally, here it is!
Unlike my other videos, this one is not entirely about Billings. This is a wide-ranging look at real estate all around south-central Montana, with some bits about the national crisis. It's all related. Running time: 30 minutes. Enjoy! Let me know what you think.
Move your mouse over the video screen, and you will see options for viewing full screen and embedding this video on your own page.
Factual accuracy is very important to me, and I tried to make this video as true and correct as possible. Click here for the transcript of the video with over 100 references to sources I used. Please let me know if you find any inaccuracies.
Note: The above video is hosted on the Vimeo service, and it is very good quality for internet video. If your browser or computer are not able to handle it, you can try the Google Video version, but note that the quality is much lower.
Great stuff Doug, thanks for the video.
Great video on new homes. Do you have anything on the existing housing market?
Thanks, glad you liked it.
As shown in the video graph, city-data.com stats show home sales down 43% year over year. That includes new and existing sales. So while I didn't highlight a whole lot of "used" homes, the trend isn't looking good.
I'm hearing anecdotes of big price reductions and "insulting" lowballs weakly countered.
Excellent!
Nearly all your observations seem to true for the Helena area market, too.
Construction is way down, listings are way up and sales are way down. Yet the median home prices are being reported in the 270's while the national median price is in the low 210's. Quite a disconnect.
How do you get your numbers? Here in Helena I have to rely on what the local chamber of commerce publishes, as the Helena Independent Record assiduously avoids reporting on housing except to public puff pieces quoting local agents and builders. And the chamber has begun to publish fewer stats lately (hmm?). Of course, the realty companies and builders are completely mum about it except when they can spin it in their favor.
Great job.
Thanks for the video Doug. Very well researched. There are lots of opinions about Billings Real-Estate from biased sources. It's refreshing to see some objective numbers.
Todd- I can't speak for Doug, but there's some Billings data available at http://www.marcdean.com/educate_yourself.htm (it only shows the current month, but many other months are available if you modify the data url in predictable ways).
As the market gets uglier I imagine it's only a matter of time until this guy is shut down, unfortunately.
Todd-- I gather inventory numbers myself from Realtor.com. Monthly sales are so hard to find! I've finally found figures on city-data.com. I don't know where they get their data sets, but I like them! Try this link: Helena stats. Looks like sales off 34% YOY in Helena. Interesting market, I wish I had more time to check it out. Got any condo projects out of control there?
Thanks for the link, anon#1! Those Prudential sheets are very nice, but I've never seen them on the web before.
I live in Vancouver. Watching your video reminded me how alike our situation is.
We have the overbuilt condos downtown. We have the unnecessary condos in the outer cowtowns. We have the surplus of overpriced recreational property. We have the aggressive out-of-province buyers. We have the smug overconfident real estate industry telling us we're special. And we have the slow subsidence as the cycle gradually turns down, keeping hope alive.
Thank you Doug for all you do. I especially like the segment on the lenders in your area. It really told the story how the Billings situation multiplied by millions of examples nationwide explains why the banking system is dead in the water.
Peter
Doug,
Here in Helena there is not so much in the way of massive condo development.
Currently 104 units for sale in the area, mostly in 4-plex style developments or converted apartments. About half are new construction. There are also the "Placer" and "Old Distillery Lofts" developments rehabbing old buildings in the downtown core.
But there is also a new "condo" development that just went in up on the side of Mt. Helena called "Westridge Heights". Part of it is set aside for 2-plex condo townhomes, but the majority of it is being marketed as building sites for single family home condos. These sites are running in the $150K range! Local builder and contractor is behind it.
Great work! Thanks Doug!
Actually I am surprised that the overall market in Billing has not dropped much, at least yet. Here in San Diego, we already see 50% drop in undesirable areas, like long commute area, high crime area.
Very good job. You're quite a talented video maker. Billings is somewhere we're looking at for a move in a few years.
Great job! Keep up the good work!
Hey Doug,
Great mini-Documentary. What camera did you use to get such good broadcast quality footage? I would like to do something like this in my neck of the wood, Inland Empire California.
5:50 p.m. anonymous-- I shot all my video (640x480x30fps) and most photos on a Fujifilm camera that can be had for <$100. Glad you thought it was "broadcast quality"!
I've noticed an increasing number of "sale by trustee" foreclosure notices in the legal notices section of the Billings Gazette. Often times covering more than one page of the classifieds.
You're right, anonymous, things have been picking up. October was the highest month for Trustee's Sale notices in more than 5 years.
I'm working on some more detailed analysis of foreclosure data.. might have it up this weekend. Watch this page.
Very nicely done.
I'm impressed with the collection of stats and you're interest in getting at the truth above anything else.
Looking forward to the next one Doug!