Look around our country. Virtually every housing market is going down, HELOCs are disappearing, and the national economy is on the brink of a severe recession. Does this sound like a good time to buy a second home in a luxury area? USA Today thinks it does!

Get in on the ground level of Big Sky ski town (Nov. 6, 2008)

A sample quote:

If you've ever envied second-home buyers who got in early at [Aspen, Vail, and Telluride], before prices went stratospheric, consider Big Sky, a newly emerging town in the Rockies of Montana. But hurry.

I'm not sure what they're thinking. Just because you can "still find tiny starter condos within walking distance of the slopes for $100,000", that means they're a bargain?



USA Today's take stands in sharp contrast to my bearish position in my latest housing video. Big Sky is likely in for some major hurt in the next few years. Besides the aforementioned recession factors, consider these facts:

• Land where the Yellowstone Club currently sits was purchased in 1992 for $179/acre
  
• Land values at the Yellowstone Club site have increased 558,559% in 16 years
• Roughly 1 in 6 houses in Big Sky is currently for sale
• Big Sky has more properties for sale than Great Falls does
  

Finally, these recent headlines show how rough times are already hitting Big Sky, and that high-end areas are not immune:

Moonlight Basin halts construction as Lehman goes bankrupt 9/24/08
Big Sky Resort gets $75m cash infusion, sells stake to Florida company 10/31/08
Yellowstone Club falls into bankruptcy 11/11/08

Just five days after USA Today's article touting the great Big Sky market, the super-elite Yellowstone Club declared bankruptcy. Oops.

Begging for another loan, a lawyer representing the Yellowstone Club today said, "If we don’t have an order today, we’ll have a financial train wreck." Even a club catering to the richest-of-the-rich is in trouble. The Yellowstone Club owes $344,000,000 and has $40,000 in the bank.

What do you think? Is it a good time to buy in Big Sky?