If you've read housing stories in local media at all these last few years, you've no doubt heard from Howard Sumner. He is a Realtor who has been around the market since the 80's and keeps an extensive archive of local housing stats, so he is often called to provide an expert opinion.

Unfortunately, Sumner's track record shows that having a mountain of stats doesn't automatically give you an insight into the current market and its direction. Let's track Sumner's statements through the years.

In September 2006 Sumner said:

When you buy in Billings it is like getting a corporate bond. You will get a steady decent rate of return of six to ten percent. It's real value and it will hold.

6-10% was only achieved for a few years at the peak of the boom. It is incredible that a stats-loaded Realtor would claim that home price appreciation in Billings would continue indefinitely at historically unrealistic rates.

The worst part is that Sumner's sunny outlook has (for the most part) been unquestionably repeated in local media with no further analysis or alternate viewpoints. It's likely that many people who've purchased in Billings did so because puff pieces like No Bubble in Billings made them think the market was great and would be just fine in the future.

Here's what Sumner had to say about the market in March 2007:

With a one percent year increase in the population growth in Billings, Sumner said, "I don't see how the prices are going to come down any time soon."

The only way for housing prices or rents to come down is if there is a loss in population or you overbuild, said Sumner.

Last year there were 559 new homes built in Billings -- about the right amount if the population grew by 1,370, or one percent, said Sumner.

As I have long stated on this page and in my videos, we have had overbuilding here. Rampant overbuilding. And population growth doesn't matter nearly as much as afforability. Since house prices have become unaffordable, they must come down.

Sumner is fond of using the word "steady" to describe the Billings market.. language used to pretend that we didn't have an enormous housing boom here in Billings with unsustainable levels of appreciation. The implication was that we never got out of control like those "other" places.. California, Florida, and even Missoula and Bozeman. We didn't go up a lot, so we can't come down. Right?

Well, finally in January 2009 Sumner has changed his tune:

The residential real estate market will likely remain flat through 2009, with even the possibility of some declines in the first quarter, predicts Billings real estate broker Howard Sumner.

Oops. So much for our steady 6 to 10 percent. I hope nobody bought in the last few years hoping for appreciation. Because as Sumner himself says, this year will see no appreciation, and possibly even price drops. And since he has shown himself to be overly optimistic, I would expect prices to come down even more than he predicts.

If I were a reputable local media organization, I would look closely at the track records of the experts I interview. Maybe I would even challenge them based on their previous statements, and get alternate viewpoints from people who actually predicted correctly. But that's just me.