The January monthly housing stats are out for the Billings area. Here are the highlights:



Year-over-year median sale price is down for the first time in recent memory. The bigger news is that closed sales have dropped off big time, nearly 50% from last year. This indicates more pain on the way. New home construction continues its collapse, yet inventory keeps rising. Further proof that Billings is overbuilt.

Note that median sale price is at best a fuzzy indication of price direction. A lower median can merely be indicating that only lower-end houses are selling. What you really want to know is, if you bought a house a year ago, would it sell for more or less today? The answer: Nobody really knows except realtors since sale prices are not public and the MLS is realtor-controlled.

Here's another table you might find interesting. I took current inventory numbers by price range and divided them by 2008 sales to find approximate months' supply by price range. Take a look:



Lower price tiers are moving the inventory out relatively swiftly. But if you're trying to sell anything over $250k, better drop that price or you'll be sitting on it for awhile!

Note that months' supply is probably understated using this method, since inventory levels will keep rising this spring.