The Trend That's Getting Hard to Ignore
Foreclosures are a closely-watched statistic, and until recently Billings seemed to be escaping the national trend of rising defaults. Low foreclosure numbers have often been referenced as a sign that the Billings market is stable and healthy.
All that is changing. Here is an updated look at Yellowstone County Notices of Trustee's Sale figures for the decade:
The latter part of 2009 saw major spikes in mortgage defaults. My guess is that the ripple effects of the $8,000 tax credit may keep defaults from rising quite so much in 2010. However, if the local economy dives again or prices head downward, you can expect to see even higher foreclosure numbers in the coming years.
If you haven't seen them, here are two archived posts that explain foreclosures: My November 2008 post talks about what a Notice of Trustee's Sale is, and looks at some foreclosure trends in Billings. In April 2009, I discussed why we would probably see foreclosures rising significantly in 2009.
That's a striking chart, not what I would expect with the home buyer's credit and the relatively robust local economy. The tax credit expires end of June, if it's like now we might see some even more surprising things in the 2nd half of 2010.
It is good to see some recent activity on this site. An eye opening chart there. It seems that many Montanans were early in proclaiming that the recession is over, but in fact it appears to be just starting to hit home, literally.
Thank you so much for posting this information. We have been looking for a house for the past several years, but have either been outbid, or we have been unwilling to pay the exorbitant prices. Now the houses we are looking at ARE foreclosures, and boy, are they in bad shape. They have virtually been vandalized. It is so frustrating to see what has happened to our economy and the housing market. Your blog keeps us focused--and ironically, gives us hope. The market has to dip in order to get into balance again.
Anon#1: Yes, the tax credit expiration will be especially interesting. I think that the effect is already wearing off.
Anon#2: That's the funny thing.. relative to other states, we've so far just had a minor economic stumble. And we seem to be in strong recovery mode, at least for now. See the map here:
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/indexes/coincident/
Anon#3: You're quite welcome. I must say, I sure admire your patience! When I first took a close look at the Billings housing market, I thought it might take 2-3 years for the excesses to be worked out. But these things take time-- lots of time. And it doesn't help when the federal government keeps trying to prop up the market. Will houses ever return to levels that make sense and are affordable for the average wage earner? I sure hope so. But for the person just wanting to buy a reasonable house, it can be frustrating.