As you may have noticed, this has not been the place for recent housing updates! However, I have been keeping up somewhat with the market, so let me compress many months of housing news into some key points.

• Nationwide, things are getting ugly. UGLY. See the above graph. OFHEO and Case-Schiller housing indices are showing the beginnings of huge drops in the national index. In California and Florida, look out below.
• As the lending crackdown, Montana Board of Investments SIV losses, and local housing related layoffs have shows, Montana is not isolated from the national scene. You may hear experts say that we can escape the brunt of a nationwide recession; I doubt it.
  
• In the latest OFHEO House Price Index, Montana is #4 in price appreciation (7% in one year). This is not particularly high figure, but all the other states have dropped off so much that Montana is now a top state for home price appreciation.
• Let's talk local. The Billings market surprised me by continuing to rise after a brief pause in late 2006. In 2007, the market has posted modest, but not spectacular, gains. There is no major crack in the market yet. A major downturn would be preceded by falling home sales.
• I have refrained from making predictions about when exactly a downturn might start. It is very hard to call the top. I only know that as long as local wages do not support local house prices, a fall is on the way.
• 2007 foreclosures in Yellowstone County were the highest since before 1996 (the earliest year that on-line records are available). However, the number is still not that large. February
  2008 showed a huge uptick, but we'll see if it was just a blip.
• Bloggers like me are accused of being overly negative. So let me make it clear: I am an optimist in everything else in life. However, I know an unsustainable asset bubble when I see it. This one has alarmed me ever since 2005. When the media ignores it or cheerleads it, I feel compelled to offer an alternate viewpoint.
• I do not relish the thought of a rapidly declining market in Billings, because I know it will cause a lot of pain all around. However, I know that when a market gets way out of control, it has to come back in line at some point. I would rather see that happen sooner rather than later. Let's suck it up, rip the band-aid off quickly, and deal with the economic trouble before it has the potential to be
  even worse.

There are a number of interesting housing stories that I look forward to reporting on; Tentative date for my next video is sometime this summer. I know this has been a long break, but thanks for your patience.

In the mean time, I would highly recommend:

Missoulapolis

which is a conservative political blog that has been talking a lot about Montana housing lately. The author, like me, is very skeptical of what she reads in the newspapers, and takes it upon herself to offer commentary on the latest housing reports.