tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-356778842010-03-05T17:46:27.874-07:00Real estate market conditions in Billings, MontanaDougnoreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-14657588474862498352010-03-01T22:13:00.002-07:002010-03-01T22:37:09.867-07:00

For the first time since 1989, house prices in Billings are lower than they were a year ago. This according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's House Price Index (you can read more about how the HPI measures the Billings market here).The HPI lags just a bit, so the latest figures are based on transactions completed in the fourth quarter of 2009. Home sales during that period average 2.66%

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-86041406661758951532010-01-26T07:19:00.001-07:002010-01-26T08:14:02.773-07:00

You might think there's little to be negative about with the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. After all, I've already shown how it boosted sales and housing starts in the Billings area. The credit proved to be so "popular" that it was extended for an additional 7 months (but as one commentator wryly noted, it's hard to find a government giveaway that's not "popular!").While we're still

Dougnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-60646680474189373422010-01-25T20:16:00.009-07:002010-01-25T21:18:37.864-07:00

A previous post of mine discussed the apparently positive effect the $8k tax credit has had on the Billings market. Now it's time to look at some not-so-positive market dynamics this has resulted in.While it would seem that this credit cost taxpayers $8,000 per house, it's not so simple. Remember, many of those buyers would have purchased homes even without the credit. A better measure is to

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-2740149132811440232010-01-20T22:41:00.003-07:002010-01-20T22:56:46.130-07:00

I'll admit-- when I first heard about Twitter, I thought it was the silliest idea ever. Over time, I've slowly come around and can begin to see its usefulness. It is an interesting way to keep up on topics and people that interest you.Twitter also has some interesting search applications. In fact, this one is kind of creepy: DemandSpot searches social media to find potential home buyers and

Dougnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-90454888564854838822010-01-19T22:11:00.002-07:002010-01-19T22:18:11.068-07:00

In early 2009, new home construction in Billings had nearly ground to a halt. Single family building permits were down 70% from 2007 levels.Then congress passed the $787 billion stimulus bill, which included an $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. It was a refundable tax credit (basically, free money) for any first time home owner. The credit was good for 10% of the home purchase price, up

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-75187523836919387442010-01-09T17:49:00.002-07:002010-01-09T22:58:14.515-07:00

Foreclosures are a closely-watched statistic, and until recently Billings seemed to be escaping the national trend of rising defaults. Low foreclosure numbers have often been referenced as a sign that the Billings market is stable and healthy.All that is changing. Here is an updated look at Yellowstone County Notices of Trustee's Sale figures for the decade:The latter part of 2009 saw major

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-7342386897319522412010-01-08T21:41:00.004-07:002010-01-09T00:10:28.049-07:00

You've probably seen a house or two for sale by a self-described "motivated seller." In this post, I'll take a closer look at one of those sellers to see what led to them being motivated. Here's what the current ad looks like (note that it's been listed for several months with no changes):The current owner purchased this Laurel house in 2003, taking out $105,000 in loans. Had the owner simply

Dougnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-69851411782048169502010-01-05T19:30:00.010-07:002010-01-08T20:59:09.665-07:00

While this page is primarily about the Billings housing market, I try to keep track of the Red Lodge area as well. It's a low-income, high-priced vacation area that may be prone to the same downturn that Big Sky and other formerly high-flying resort areas have seen. In fact, stats from Gary Khatchikian show that prices are already down 18% from last year.In my 2008 housing video, I highlighted

Dougnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-26451321110359920162009-10-10T18:32:00.003-06:002009-10-11T01:23:55.780-06:00

It's been a long summer with little activity on this page, so I'll kick the fall off with all the stats I could find showing how the Billings market is doing.First up, we have the Supply and Demand graph. The bars show quarterly sales, and the lines show housing inventory for each year since 2006. Sales experienced a bounce in the third quarter of 2009, besting 2008 figures. This is

Dougnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-42892220223253679932009-07-19T21:29:00.002-06:002009-07-19T21:36:36.323-06:00

It's a good thing I got some footage of new construction in Billings last month. One house is no longer standing. Take a look at 1413 Twin Oaks Drive, before and after:The Gazette has some pictures of the fire. Billings Fire Department says it's arson.

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-37578063683476312542009-06-17T21:54:00.002-06:002009-06-18T00:23:36.056-06:00

This past weekend, I biked around town to see the spring construction hotspots in Billings. The result is the following video showing dozens of residential construction sites in 18 subdivisions around town.This was a fairly quick project, so please excuse the shaky camera and wind noise. Running time is 10:52.Note that this video has been filmed in high definition. But you'll need to click

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-71726457642432567792009-06-06T23:33:00.002-06:002009-06-06T23:44:42.284-06:00

Are Montana banks really safe, conservative lenders that can easily weather a downturn? Now you can judge for yourself. The Bank Loan Performance site has aggregated FDIC filing information so you can quickly view total loan values, portfolio allocation, and delinquency rates for major U.S. banks.Here's a quick summary of delinquency rates on banks with a major presence in Billings:

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-44932192705257444082009-06-04T20:51:00.003-06:002009-06-04T23:56:47.122-06:00

Housing statistics in Billings have been grim over the past year, but the latest figures show some improvement. Is Billings seeing a so-called Spring Bounce?May home sales are up over the same month in 2008:Construction has also improved, halting its precipitous slide in May and equaling May 2008. However, this still represents a 50% drop from 2007.Finally, Yellowstone County unemployment

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-43378640903488448172009-05-31T18:54:00.002-06:002009-05-31T19:05:00.852-06:00

This is a very interesting e-mail I received recently (printed with permission). Jared lives in Bend, Oregon and believes that the rapid rise and fall of that market might give us here in Montana a clue about the future of our housing markets. I think there's a lot to learn from this.My name is Jared, I grew up in Idaho but have lived in Bend, Oregon for the last five years. I moved here amidst

Dougnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-39265849717596970812009-05-31T17:30:00.004-06:002009-05-31T18:15:21.798-06:00

There are many, many vacant houses in Yellowstone county. Every now and then, you can find a killer rental deal for just a fraction of what you would pay to own. Here's one:It's a 3500 square foot house, 5 bedroom, 3 bath, 2 car garage, theater room. Subdivision is Copper Ridge, off Rimrock west of 62nd.The owner purchased it in 2006, then listed it for sale just a few months later. This

Dougnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-18173016154717497972009-05-21T19:19:00.000-06:002009-05-22T00:13:29.244-06:00

How would you like to live in this 3 bedroom, 1 bath South side house for only about $3000 a month?No? Would it help any if I told you that it's right near the lovely Jackson/Monroe/Jefferson rowhouses? Still no?This actually happened. By purchasing in March 2008 and then selling for a loss 14 months later, this owner has effectively paid $3,000 a month to live in this house. Sort of. Keep

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-56805103152709846022009-05-07T21:36:00.003-06:002009-05-07T23:09:14.695-06:00

Here's a graph of home sales so far this year in Billings, compared to last year. (Source is Howard Sumner's blog).Sales were very weak in April. In fact, there were actually fewer closings in April than in March-- very unusual going into the spring selling season.Consider the incentives that there are to buy right now-- incredibly low interest rates, and an $8,000 first time homebuyer credit.

Dougnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-40529160746627691972009-05-06T20:08:00.002-06:002009-05-06T20:46:25.197-06:00

Officially, Yellowstone County is at 4.7% unemployment for March 2009 (the latest figures that are available). This is the highest figure in 9 years, but it's still very modest. See this graph:Unofficially, however, there's some crazy stuff going on in the local labor market that is not yet reflected in the stats. Layoffs and job losses are accelerating. In just the latest example, Rimrock

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-6423583447726355962009-04-26T22:21:00.003-06:002009-04-26T20:06:29.673-06:00

After some careful research, I can now confirm that falling prices having come to Billings. And the uncomfortable truth is that many houses are selling for less than they did a few years ago. This tells me that many people who purchased since 2006, with small down-payments, may now be underwater.This is the first time I've been able to put down hard numbers on real money lost in the Billings

Dougnoreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-55724069011526840282009-04-25T18:00:00.000-06:002009-04-25T18:04:37.442-06:00

Statistics are hard to ignore. Here's the latest update to the supply/demand graph, with 2009 figures in yellow. The line graphs show inventory (supply) while the bar graphs show quarterly sales figures (demand). As you can see, oversupply and falling sales continue to be the big stories:Since most stats in the Billings market are looking grim, those looking for something positive often

Dougnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-33989176593482950422009-04-24T20:50:00.000-06:002009-04-25T18:03:44.432-06:00

I wish I could ignore HousingPredictor.com, but they're back again. Housing Predictor is run by a Florida Realtor, has a bad prediction record, and has no professional credibility among serious economists (as I wrote about previously).Unfortunately, their unsupported claims keep getting quoted in the news. Ever more interesting, the director of the Montana Department of Revenue, Dan Bucks, used

Dougnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-36846089320545295262009-04-05T18:00:00.003-06:002009-04-05T18:47:11.147-06:00

The Gazette has a very interesting article today: Real estate bust like 1980s is unlikely to be repeated.While the headline is poor and there's the usual denial by local "experts", this really is a fascinating and eye-opening piece by Ed Kemmick. The sub-title says it best: Less than one-third of lots platted between 2005 and 2008 have houses on them.Bitterroot Heights has only 5 of its 50

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-38100300888666359002009-03-21T14:39:00.004-06:002009-03-21T15:10:27.053-06:00

Billings Housing Market Blog reader and commenter Anon#1 passes along a link to this Big Sky Business Journal article and this comment:I feel special- I'm the doubting Thomas named in the below article. :-) I should have been more specific about which claim I wanted her to ask about, but them's the breaks. Also, Howard's stock market quote conveniently ignores dividends- the stock market since '

Dougnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-62429972996284238342009-03-08T23:22:00.005-06:002009-03-08T23:36:31.677-06:00

If you lived through the housing bust of the 80's and happened to pick up a Billings Gazette during the aftermath, you might have seen this graphic:Pretty steep drop, huh? The population declines and price drops of the mid 80's created an environment where building almost ground to a halt for a few years. On a graph, it looks pretty ugly. But wait. Let's plot the current decline in

Dougnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35677884.post-9439611684157245282009-02-23T22:50:00.006-07:002009-02-23T23:38:37.437-07:00

As careful observers have long expected, the Billings housing market has really turned. Year-over-year prices are down, sales are down, inventory is up, construction is down, unemployment is up. All signs seem bleak for the housing market.But for the most part, industry professionals seem oblivious to all these things. Yesterday's headline in the Billings Gazette was It's Time to Buy, Says

Dougnoreply@blogger.com5